The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[Ellipsis-Ultima]

WELP IT ACTUALLY HAPPENED.

Trump is the 3rd president to be impeached. He'll have to go on trial via Senate, but the Senate's controlled by Republicans. 

I won't be surprised in the slightest if they manage to keep him in office.

[Heckboy]

He's not going to get removed. 

Dems will nominate some neolib moderate like Biden or a weak Obama-esque psuedo-progressive like Warren. Literally anything to prevent significant change.

Trump will use the entire impeachment spectacle to rile up his base in 2020 and ensure his re-election. 

[buranflakes]

Regardless of the outcome, I think this is a pretty amazing development. It’s only the third time a United States President has been impeached, so this is a really historic moment I feel. Feels... interesting to think about the historic significance of this all.

[Dark Qiviut]

Have to agree with him and the OP. It doesn't matter if you feel the impeachment process was partisan or not. The #1 assignment of anyone in Congress is to defend the U.S. Constitution and uphold the rule of law. Trump clearly abused his power by trying to get oppo info from Ukraine, and he obstructed Congress on multiple occasions. On both (weak) Articles of Impeachment, Tulsi Gabbard and every Republican (or Dem) who voted anything other than "aye" determined that their own agenda mattered more than maintaining accountability upon the president. Tulsi's silence, in particular, is more deafening by using a cowardly "present" vote, thus determining that not choosing was the better "choice." Disappointing.

Should she win the nomination, I'll vote for her. But for now, she lost my primary vote.

[Candescence]

1 hour ago, Dark Qiviut said:

Have to agree with him and the OP. It doesn't matter if you feel the impeachment process was partisan or not. The #1 assignment of anyone in Congress is to defend the U.S. Constitution and uphold the rule of law. Trump clearly abused his power by trying to get oppo info from Ukraine, and he obstructed Congress on multiple occasions. On both (weak) Articles of Impeachment, Tulsi Gabbard and every Republican (or Dem) who voted anything other than "aye" determined that their own agenda mattered more than maintaining accountability upon the president. Tulsi's silence, in particular, is more deafening by using a cowardly "present" vote, thus determining that not choosing was the better "choice." Disappointing.

Should she win the nomination, I'll vote for her. But for now, she lost my primary vote.

Gabbard did worse than just saying "present". She did the both sides thing with the impeachment debate when explaining why she did so, equivocating the Democrats' language and actions as being somehow just as bad as the GOP flagrantly defending a blatant criminal for political purposes. Then she proceeded to hang out with the Republican reps.

Also, she's been pretty shitty for a while, nobody should be voting for her at this point. There's actually rumors that the Russians plan to groom her as a third-party spoiler candidate.

Not that she's getting the nomination, anyway. It's gonna come down to either Biden, Warren or Sanders. Possibly also Bloomberg or Buttigieg. Everyone else has no fucking chance at this point and really should just get out so the serious contenders can battle it out properly rather than deal with half a dozen pretenders as well.

[Dark Qiviut]

My rankings for tonight's Democratic debate. Winner, meh, loser.

1. Bernie Sanders: Not afraid to call out the issues or come back to the issues. Since his heart attack, he's been more relaxed, more personal, and takes things seriously while showing more of his personality. He's shown his personality in other times this cycle, but he really showed it tonight. And he currently has the momentum. His best debate performance so far.
2. Andrew Yang & Elizabeth Warren (tie): Surprise surprise, Yang got the least amount of time! But he was substantive and did well with the little he had. And Warren had her best performance since her third debate, in particular calling out the corruption and Buttigieg for taking part in that corruption.
3. Amy Klobuchar: The surprise winner, IMO. She did a really good job. Relaxed, feisty, and gave Buttigieg a run for his money quite a bit. The fact that she called him out for dismissing congressional inexperience and used herself and her colleagues as examples of crossing the ideological line to get things done was a great point and her best moment in her debate performances so far.
4. Tom Steyer/Joe Biden (tie): Steyer had the better performance than Biden, but didn't stick away from the reputation of carrying his campaign as a vanity project. Surprisingly, Biden did much better here compared to his other performances, but looked bad in being called out for taking billionaire bribes (from 44 of them) and his crappy healthcare plan.
5. Pete Buttigieg: Billionaire fundraisers for politicians aren't well-liked at all, because they accurately represent how politicians are out of touch with real issues working people face. Those pictures featuring him in that wine cave are a perfect microcosm of politicians pandering to the elite. He got called out for it and never delivered a good reply to recover from those criticisms.

[Bowbowis]

On 12/12/2019 at 12:29 AM, Winter Spirit Ultima said:

 

Yes this is a thing. Note that they used the scene where Thanos fails the snap.

First Kingsmen, now The Avengers. Are the Trumpies intent on ruining all of my favorite movies? What's next? Trump poisoning Pelosi with iocane powder? Trump breaking out of Shawshank? Trump escaping impeachment by tying a bunch of balloons to the White House?

I'm gonna stop now before I give them too many ideas.

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

We haven't had any polls since the debate and impeachment. It's going to be interesting to see if there are any shifts. From what data points we have, impeachment tends to uplift candidates who are more conciliatory. I can definitely see someone more soft spoken like Yang getting a boost from the tension of impeachment, particularly since he's commented on Twitter that he wishes Congress could make bipartisan deals to help ordinary people rather than setting up a cagematch to try and remove a President who quite possibly will be leaving in a year anyway.

Now as for overall trends (looking at the past 6 months): Biden and Bernie are looking to be the clear winners of this race. While Biden slipped early on as it became apparent what his ideas were and who he was up against, he's managed to stay stable around 27% for months. Over the same period, Bernie has seen a bit of an uptick, and stabilized around 17%. Berniecrats are hoping he'll outperform the polls by a large margin again like in the 2016 race, but I caution that this is a very different race; he is no longer the protest vote like he was, and his ideas are no longer quite as novel.

Warren, who once looked like the clear counter to Biden, has sunk from her massive 27% to a mere 15%. Her numbers are all over the place, even if she's still stronger than she was 6 months ago. However, she still has the numbers to remain a heavyweight, provided she can do well in the first primaries.

Buttegieg peaked at 11% earlier this month, but he has sunken to 8% recently, so he's no longer looking like the guy who will usurp Warren for third place. However, he still has strong leads in early states like Iowa, so he's probably going to stay in the race for a long time, at least unless he gets crushed on Super Tuesday (the day where several states hold their primaries at once) in March.

Super Tuesday brings us to Bloomberg, currently polling 5% nationwide. He is ignoring the early primaries, and his plan is to sink a huge amount of money into the Super Tuesday states. It may possibly allow him some leverage, but it's more likely he'll end up a spoiler. It just remains: a spoiler for whom? Any candidate he sinks below 15% is going to be ruined, as they will not be entitled to any delegates.

Other comments: Yang is continuing to be surprisingly strong in his 3-4% range. However, unless he gets some more support, I can see him and Klobuchar fizzling out shortly.

Booker and Castro are just kind of there at the bottom of the pack, crying about racism (I guess Yang is white apparently) as they continue to sink into obscurity, arguing Harris was forced out by racism rather than maybe the fact she sucks at managing money.

While the field's leadership has become less diverse on race, let's remind Booker and Castro we still have a lot of minority candidates in play here. Biden would be the second Roman Catholic President, Sanders would be the first Jewish President, Warren and Klobuchar would be the first female President, Buttegieg would be the first openly gay President, and Yang would be the first Asian American.

Honestly, Booker and Castro just come off as babies angry they were denied the chance to be the second Obama in a race where pretty much every candidate represents a minority group.

***

Another effect generally seen is impeachment proceedings tend to hurt a President's numbers with independents and swing voters while firing up the President's base. There's actually enormous humor in both sides claiming the impeachment "guaranteed" one result or the other.

In truth, I still think that for everything, Trump's re-election is a coin toss. His approval has sagged... but Florida has gone Republican two elections in a row, and Wisconsin was much harder for Democrats in 2018 than the other Rust Belt states. He only needs to win those two states unless Democrats pull some magic and somehow steal Arizona or something.

Two things that might complicate Florida in 2020: it is not only voting on a ballot initiative to raise the minimum wage to $15 (though I will not a lot of voters are incoherent and do not understand that the Republicans want to kill the minimum wage, so will happily vote GOP while also saying yes to wage increases), but you also have the 1.5 million people who will be enfranchised in 2020 versus 2018, who likely have a Democratic lean. I anticipate Florida will be a nailbiter as always.

Some other things that could make this race weird: with Christianity Today coming out against Trump (and being accused of being far left because of it in one of his insane Tweets; consider, he implied Pence is far left in the same Tweet) could shake some evangelicals away from him. In addition, that the new defense bill granted amnesty to 4,000 Liberians has apparently angered a lot of his base.

Shocker: once again, the thought of giving citizenship to people who aren't white is what finally gets his base angry at him. Breitbart was angry, certainly, but they refrained from calling him "Amnesty Don" unlike the last time.

[Perkilator]

Um, guys? Remember North Korea's "Christmas present"?

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

What, did they launch another missile test? Cuz I wouldn’t be surprised.

[Tani Coyote]

From what I heard, besides a missile test, many think the real "present" is North Korea taking denuclearization off the table because Trump looks vulnerable politically and so is in no real position to try and intimidate North Korea anymore.

I assume Trump would love this because he can just smear anyone who doesn't plan to pull the lever for him as selling out to Kim.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Primary polls are in again, though there understandably weren't many taken over the past week. Nobody seems to have seen any real impact from impeachment or the debate, but we do have one small piece of big news: Julian Castro has dropped from the race. He was polling around 1%.

I guess his attempt to paint the whole primary as being about racism didn't go so well for him.

He had interesting ideas on how to handle immigration. Beyond that I'm happy he's gone.

EDIT: It looks like what actually happened was for whatever reason, he was not in some polls. Either way, there have been reports of him slashing staff in some states so I think he is on his way out. And with the first primaries only weeks away, it's not a moment too soon.

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

I’m not gonna comment much. I’m just gonna deliver this news and walk away...

[Danj86]

I don't usually get involved in political discussions. It's all far too complicated for me to follow and the UK does things slightly different, I think...

I thought with the chaos going on today and the possibility of misinformation spreading, maybe it would help to share something. Their is a political commentator and ex journalist that hosts YouTube videos. He seems trustworthy and is also very anti-war. He's sharing photos that were taken during the riot in Baghdad which sparked the retaliation. (I think.)

I can't really comment on anything else. I'm just hoping something like this would ease the worries that some might be having.

[Heckboy]

53 minutes ago, DanJ86 said:

I don't usually get involved in political discussions. It's all far too complicated for me to follow and the UK does things slightly different, I think...

I thought with the chaos going on today and the possibility of misinformation spreading, maybe it would help to share something. Their is a political commentator and ex journalist that hosts YouTube videos. He seems trustworthy and is also very anti-war. He's sharing photos that were taken during the riot in Baghdad which sparked the retaliation. (I think.)

I can't really comment on anything else. I'm just hoping something like this would ease the worries that some might be having.

Storming the embassy was entirely justified considering how hard America has fucked Iraq for decades. Fuck the people like him trying to dismiss this as just being some Iran-orchestrated operation. None of this shit warrants assassinating one of the highest-ranking figures in another country.

[PaddyFancy]

Trump proving to be the biggest motherfucking hyprocrite on God's earth. In 2011 he tweeted that Obama would start a war in Iran to get himself re-elected. Nine years later here he is fishing for a war on an election year. Rules only apply to you if you're a democrat.

There was a reason why I haven't talked much about seeing out what has been another textbook bad year with hope towards a better year and decade because I have no hope of things getting better. I didn't anticipate I would be proved right this quickly into 2020.

You mark my words. Whatever happens with the Iran crisis, he's going to get re-elected. Its over people.

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

Hey, want 2020 to get weirder?

 

 

[Dark Qiviut]

Three words. Here. Comes. Bernie.

 

[Ellipsis-Ultima]

The Iowa caucus is a mess for the Democratic side, due to some technical issues. Geez.

[Ellipsis-Ultima]

Aaaand Trump has been acquitted from being removed from office in the trial.

Disappointed, but not surprised.

[Candescence]

The one silver lining is that all the Democrats voted to convict and Mitt Romney broke ranks and became the first senator in an impeachment trial to vote against a president from his own party, crippling the "partisan" argument the GOP had, and, of course, enraging the MAGA drones who was infuriated that he dared to follow his conscience and vote against the god-king.

[Dark Qiviut]

So multi-billionaire oligarch Mike Bloomberg, who:

1. endorsed Republican Pat Toomey and spent $12 million to fund his campaign over Democratic challenger Katie McGinty
2. endorsed and supported GWB at the '04 Republican National Convention
3. endorsed Scott Brown over Elizabeth Warren
4. supported the Iraq War
5. supported and defended Stop & Frisk until this cycle (how convenient!)
6. supported tough-on-crime and the War on Drugs until (conveniently!!) this cycle!
7. was a registered Republican until two milliseconds ago!

He decides that the only way to stop Warren or Sanders from getting the Democratic nom is to run for pres himself, bribe the DNC for $300,000 before running, spend over $350 million in TV ads, buy his way onto the Democratic debate stage, and buy actual Democratic support both inside the DNC and out! Nina Turner called him an oligarch, and Bloomberg's positive support among Democratic voters over the last few weeks proves her right.

Bloomberg is a classist and racist. This audio recording five years ago proves how dangerous he truly is! Check out the rest of the links in Benjamin Dixon's chain, too.

 

[Ellipsis-Ultima]

Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire primary and Andrew Yang has suspended his campaign.

[Dark Qiviut]

Going a different direction.

This is Anthony Clark. Last cycle, he was a Justice Democrat running an insurgent primary against Danny K. Davis, only to lose.

He's running against him again. Today, he picks up a major campaign boost. Chicago's second-largest newspaper, the Sun-Times, endorsed him, citing his urgent pursuit and passion for change.

[Dark Qiviut]

Very telling that after last night's debate, Bernie Sanders:

1. Refuses to accept a Super PAC in his corner (or any type of corporate PAC $$$) and is the only one left without one.
2. Won't accept any billionaire contributions. Earlier this campaign, he returned a check from a wife of one.
3. Is the only one of the six from the debate to state that the plurality delegate/vote leader should be the nominee.

[Tani Coyote]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/entrance-polls-2020-nevada-caucuses/

Just an entrance poll but umm... Bernie looks poised to absolutely crush everyone at the Nevada caucuses. He leads in basically every voter category. Seems those polls putting him at 30%+ were on the money.

I would not be surprised if we see someone drop tonight.