The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[SSF1991]

So they're trying to screw with Obamacare. Again.

Every single day, I increasingly hate the GOP more and more.

[Phos]

So trump nominated Brett Telly for some judge position, and really which one it was is kind of irrelevant because he clearly isn't qualified for any of them.  He's never tried a case.  It seems like Trump managed to find the least qualified person he can legally nominate for the position.  

[SSF1991]

2 hours ago, Phos said:

It seems like Trump managed to find the least qualified person he can legally nominate for the position.  

This goes for every single position he nominates people for.

[Tani Coyote]

Basically, only a handful had any real qualifications.

It's just sad that even the moderates keep rubber stamping the appointments. I guess they're adhering to "red no matter who" because they know if Democrats retake the majority they'll be denying most of these nominees.

They're rushing to fill appointments before Democrats get a seat at the table.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Democrats nuked the legislative filibuster so they could vote to expand all these courts?

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/mitch-mcconnell-publicly-floats-jeff-sessions-as-write-in-alternative-to-roy-moore/article/2640675

Mitch McConnell has announced his choice for a possible write-in candidate: Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He feels Sessions, as the original holder, would have the best odds of winning a write-in campaign, citing the case of how Lisa Murkowski, after being ousted in a primary, used her incumbent status to win a write-in campaign.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/roy-moore-mitch-mcconnells-days-as-majority-leader-are-coming-to-an-end-very-soon/article/2640684

Meanwhile, Moore and McConnell's feud continues to escalate. Moore has said McConnell's days as majority leader are numbered and has called McConnell's attempt to get rid of him an "inside hit job."

There's also this:

Basically, we're seeing toxic party infighting that puts the Bernie/Clinton issue to shame.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/360392-poll-moore-leads-jones-by-6-points-in-alabama-senate-race

Another poll indicates Moore leads by 6 points. Other polls indicate 2 points. Considering Moore originally was leading by 11 points in most polls, it's a considerable drop. If McConnell and the GOP establishment seriously back Sessions, it will be an interesting race.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/alabama-gop-threatens-retaliation-disloyalty-moore-n820876

Of course, the Alabama GOP has countermeasures. The state chair has implied she will ban any sitting GOP candidate who wages a write-in campaign or endorses Moore from running on the GOP ticket for six years. She is within her rights to do so under state law and party rules.

[SSF1991]

11 hours ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/360392-poll-moore-leads-jones-by-6-points-in-alabama-senate-race

Another poll indicates Moore leads by 6 points. Other polls indicate 2 points. Considering Moore originally was leading by 11 points in most polls, it's a considerable drop. If McConnell and the GOP establishment seriously back Sessions, it will be an interesting race.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/roy-moore-doug-jones-poll-244937

And now there's a poll that has Moore behind by 12.

12!

[Tani Coyote]

With Rand Paul and McCain both being in favor of the Senate tax bill, it was expected it could easily get to 50 votes (Murkowski and Collins being the most likely defectors) and be passed by Mike Pence.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/15/politics/ron-johnson-against-tax-bill/index.html

But then this happened. Ron Johnson has announced opposition on the basis of the tax bill being unfair to small businesses.

With the inclusion of the mandate repeal, there are decent odds Collins and Murkowski could go against the bill, which would cause it to fail. Collins has previously stated she feels including the mandate repeal is a bad idea because it turns this into a healthcare bill and not a tax bill.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/15/politics/ivanka-trump-roy-moore/index.html

Trump himself may be quiet on the Roy Moore debacle, but his daughter isn't. Ivanka Trump issued a public statement saying there's a special place in Hell for people who prey on children.

Sources close to Donald indicate his main reservation about joining the conversation is that it would be shifted towards sexual allegations against him in the past.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/15/politics/trump-federal-judge-nominees-scrutinized/index.html

Continuing the Trumpian trend of discrediting opposition organizations, Senate Republicans like Ted Cruz have started to accuse the American Bar Association of having liberal bias as a reason to ignore its critiques of some of Trump's judicial nominees.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/15/politics/roy-moore-attorney-msnbc-interview-ali-velshi-background/index.html

If you needed any evidence the Moore campaign has a racism problem, look at this.

Roy Moore's attorney apparently tried to indicate that a talkshow host's Indian ancestry would help her understand Moore's emphasis on parental consent, only to be corrected the host is from Canada, if of Indian descent.

[SSF1991]

1 hour ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

With Rand Paul and McCain both being in favor of the Senate tax bill, it was expected it could easily get to 50 votes (Murkowski and Collins being the most likely defectors) and be passed by Mike Pence.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/15/politics/ron-johnson-against-tax-bill/index.html

But then this happened. Ron Johnson has announced opposition on the basis of the tax bill being unfair to small businesses.

With the inclusion of the mandate repeal, there are decent odds Collins and Murkowski could go against the bill, which would cause it to fail. Collins has previously stated she feels including the mandate repeal is a bad idea because it turns this into a healthcare bill and not a tax bill.

So the odds of the Senate's tax bill failing aren't low. What about the House's tax bill? Are there good odds that the House will pass their version of the tax bill?

How much more time do they have to pass the bill this year, anyway? It feels like they're cutting it close, with Thanksgiving a week away.

[Tani Coyote]

1 minute ago, SSF1991 said:

What about the House's tax bill? Are there good odds that the House will pass their version of a tax bill?

Last I heard, it will only narrowly pass. A lot of GOP Representatives are from high tax blue states, and won't back any tax bill that radically reduces SALT deductions.

1 minute ago, SSF1991 said:

How much more time do they have to pass the bill this year, anyway? It feels like they're cutting it close, with Thanksgiving a week away.

In the calendar year, not much time at all. The Senate has today and tomorrow, then go on recess the whole week of Thanksgiving. After that, just 3 weeks before they adjourn for the year. The House has far less time: they're going on recess after today and don't come back until the 28th, only working 4 days a week for 3 weeks after that.

In short, the Senate has 17 days, the House has 13.

In the fiscal year, many, many, many months. The passage of a 2018 budget means reconciliation will be available for a while.

[SSF1991]

3 minutes ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

Last I heard, it will only narrowly pass. A lot of GOP Representatives are from high tax blue states, and won't back any tax bill that radically reduces SALT deductions.

Uh oh. Just it passing at all doesn't sit too well with me. And if the Senate's still in session, who knows what stunts they'll pull to try to pass that thing.

[Tani Coyote]

7 minutes ago, SSF1991 said:

Uh oh. Just it passing at all doesn't sit too well with me. And if the Senate's still in session, who knows what stunts they'll pull to try to pass that thing.

It's worth recalling how the Obamacare repeal effort went down. Even the highly partisan House could only narrowly pass it, then the efforts just collapsed in the Senate.

It sounds like this won't go much differently, especially given the Senate opted to turn this into a healthcare issue with the mandate repeal. Wise lawmakers understand the individual mandate, while unpopular, stabilizes the market. It'd be insane to get rid of it without funding the subsidies that Trump axed. With the GOP controlling so much of government, premium hikes will fall on them.

http://www.wlwt.com/article/gop-house-tax-vote/13732130

Funnily enough, this is actually a concern raised among the House GOP. They worry the Senate will sink the bill, leaving the House holding the bag once again.

[SSF1991]

8 minutes ago, Lord Bergamo (Ogilvie) said:

It's worth recalling how the Obamacare repeal effort went down. Even the highly partisan House could only narrowly pass it, then the efforts just collapsed in the Senate.

It sounds like this won't go much differently, especially given the Senate opted to turn this into a healthcare issue with the mandate repeal. Wise lawmakers understand the individual mandate, while unpopular, stabilizes the market. It'd be insane to get rid of it without funding the subsidies that Trump axed. With the GOP controlling so much of government, premium hikes will fall on them.

I suppose. I'm just nervous about this is all. This is, allegedly, the thing that has kept them from ditching Trump. And it may decide where their party's support will go. And it could screw over many Americans if it passes.

So yeah...the stakes are high. =(

[Tani Coyote]

http://thehill.com/homenews/news/360656-woman-accuses-al-franken-of-kissing-groping-her-without-consent

Next up on the exposed sex predator list... Democratic Senator Al Franken.

There's a pretty damning photo going around of him groping her while she's asleep. He's already issued a statement that it was an inappropriate joke he shouldn't have done (ergo, he just admitted it's real).

Now resign, asshole. Democrat or Republican, get the fuck outta here.

If Franken resigns, the Democratic Governor will appoint a replacement who will serve until a special election is held in 2018; whoever wins that special election will serve until 2020's elections.

[SSF1991]

Meanwhile, speaking of the House's tax plan.

It passed. 227-205.

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/931234131953967104

[Tani Coyote]

Whelp.

I guess desperation for a victory will do that to one. They're wagering better an angry Democratic base than a disappointed Republican one.

The sad thing is they're probably right there. The Democrats are likely to turn out in droves no matter what, so they need to rally the GOP base to try and stem the tide, to avoid a repeat of Virginia's House races.

Unfortunately for them, Senators serve six years. And almost none of the GOP Senators are up next year.

Which means there's a very real possibility the Senate will sink this bill, the effects on the House majority be damned.

Given we have one GOP Senator saying no already, and he's not one of the usual suspects, this looks like it could easily be dead on arrival in the Senate.

[SSF1991]

The Senate is hoping to hold their tax bill vote the week after Thanksgiving, which is news to me.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/360704-house-passes-sweeping-tax-bill-in-victory-for-gop

[Tani Coyote]

If Corker really wants to ruin Trump, he'll vote to kill the bill. A failure to pass anything substantial in a year is likely to cost the GOP the midterms, and if the GOP loses either chamber in those, it's likely to cripple Trump's term and quite possibly cost him re-election.

Someone like Obama was able to stay in despite a lackluster second half to his first term because he has a lot of personal likeability. Trump has none of that, which means he's going to owe a lot of his re-election to his accomplishments.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/16/politics/poll-alabama-senate-roy-moore-doug-jones/index.html

Fox News poll finds Jones up 8 percent over Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate race.

It's found Luther Strange wouldn't have helped the GOP much if he was the nominee instead, either.

Demographic divides aren't surprising: Jones has gained huge amounts of support from women, while Moore remains popular among evangelicals, men, and working class whites (or "whites without a college degree," for those who like to attack the working class white narrative).

It's worth noting Fox News has had the most positive polls for Jones since the start of the race. It's possible a lot of liberals watch Fox, but it's also possible Fox has a vested interest in reporting Democrats ahead: it would encourage complacency among liberals ("of course Hillary will beat that moron") while encouraging turnout among conservatives ("holy crap the left will actually win if I don't turn out today").

Let's recall here: the day of the anticipated Georgia 6th race, a Democrat had comparable results to Ossoff in a House district that's far more conservative. The difference? Ossoff was salivated over by the media and anti-Trump forces for months, whereas the other Democrat just quietly ran with little attention.

Democrats are smart to keep their noses largely out of Alabama. Everyone getting involved prompts the local GOP base to rally around the flag and block a Jones victory. Right now it's a race by and for Alabamans, and Alabamans prefer Jones over Moore, it seems.

[Tani Coyote]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/16/politics/tax-bill-committee/index.html

The Senate's tax bill has advanced out of committee along Party lines, 14-12.

It's gonna be a long Thanksgiving week as we await what comes next.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/17/politics/daca-state-of-play/index.html

Strong expectation that there will be a DACA replacement bill sometime in December. Dreamers' ability to stay here doesn't expire until March 2018, but few politicians want to wait until the last minute, plus the Democrats have leverage in December because that's when 60 Senate votes are needed to fund the government.

The expectation is the GOP will allow most Dreamers to stay, but they won't be able to sponsor relatives and there will be an increase in border security funding.

[KHCast]

Ohhhhh the hypocrisy.

[Tani Coyote]

In fairness, Trump's not a hypocrite.

Unlike Franken, he never said he disagrees with sexual harassment.

Which of course just makes Trump even shittier.

[Patticus]

Trump doesn't need to be a hypocrite on Franken, because he's a far bigger hypocrite on Clinton: much of what he accused her of doing, or claimed she'd do in office, he or those close to him have already gone and done - sometimes to worse degrees.

The Franken issue is painful and infuriating, because he was a presidential candidate-in-the-making. It's almost like John Edwards all over again. I don't know whether he should resign or not like Edwards did, though. I mean, nothing of what he did actually constitutes sexual assault, by my understanding; the woman did consent to the USO comedy routine, and he did later apologize for the photo taken on the plane ride home - an apology which I'm given to understand was accepted. Plus, you can't feel shit through that body armor. Then again though, it wasn't right that he pressured her into doing the USO comedy routine kiss with him, since she was clearly uncomfortable with how grossly he performed it, nor was the sleeping photo even remotely acceptable. I don't support what he did in the slightest, it's pretty damn nasty and in very poor taste, and I've definitely lost a lot of my respect for the man, but I'm having a hard time seeing what he did as criminal as well.

He's no Louis C.K., he's no Donald Trump, he's no Roy Moore, and he's no Bill Clinton.

If other women come out and more sordid tales emerge, I'll revise my stance ASAP, but for right now I'm leaning toward the "He should probably keep on in his job until the investigation's findings are announced" point of view.

If the Democratic Party leadership had wanted to get ahead of the furor and prove itself the Republicans' moral and ethical superior, it should have moved much more strongly on Franken - immediate suspension pending investigation, or something. That that didn't happen is deeply concerning, not least because it gives the GOP an opening to expel Roy Moore, should he win, and claim the moral high ground.

[SSF1991]

11 minutes ago, Patticus said:

If the Democratic Party leadership had wanted to get ahead of the furor and prove itself the Republicans' moral and ethical superior, it should have moved much more strongly on Franken - immediate suspension pending investigation, or something. That that didn't happen is deeply concerning, not least because it gives the GOP an opening to expel Roy Moore, should he win, and claim the moral high ground.

So...Democrats shooting themselves in the foot again?

[KHCast]

God Dems are like Sonic Team in so many ways if that's the case 

[Dizcrybe]

I'm in the "Franken needs to go" camp. We've got an image to uphold here.

For what it's worth. many Dems are calling for Franken's resignation IIRC.