The General 'Murican Politics Thread

[CleverSonicUsername]

31 minutes ago, Conquering Storm's Servant said:

Couldn't they just impeach Pence as well, or invoke their part of the checks and balances to keep him in check in the chance we get a Democrat majority in Congress?

The only reason Trump isn't even being impeached now is because the GOP controls Congress, but should that reverse and the Democrats return to power I can't even see Pence enacting anything too heinous that they can reel him in over.

As Conando mentioned, the next step down would be Ryan. Every step of the ladder is just awful, but they're also all far more capable of getting stuff done than Trump.

As far as a democratic majority goes, they could play obstruction politics. Whether or not they'll take the majority is unclear. Its been mentioned in this topic that currently the democrats are seeing stronger voter turn out as the GOP's image continues to deteriorate, but the midterm elections are still a ways away, and a lot can happen between then and now to impact voter opinion and turn out. I also don't think the current democratic strategy of "hope the republicans fail even harder" is all that great. Democrats, as far as I can see, aren't making an argument for themselves beyond "boy at least we aren't them, huh?"

[Candescence]

Behind Comey’s firing: An enraged Trump, fuming about Russia

tl;dr: Trump was pissed that the Russia investigation was overshadowing his 'achievements' and that Comey wasn't his lapdog, and he wanted the investigation shut down. He also thought both sides of politics would support him because nobody likes Comey - turns out both sides also were aware of the political optics of such a move, leaving Trump baffled that still nobody was supporting him.

[KHCast]

Jesus Christ this man is the epitome of fucking idiocy. I cannot understand how he has support. He comes off so unprofessional and like predicted, let's his ego and anger run the show

[Tornado]

Alternatively, Comey was an idiot with a publicly known track record of being a politically tone deaf idiot; and it's surprising he lasted this long into a new administration.

[KHCast]

So like, is that an argument to my point or...? Cause just cause someone else is an idiot doesn't really put the other idiot in some better light, especially when his reasoning for firing comey comes off more personal vs professional

[Tani Coyote]

4 hours ago, CleverSonicUsername said:

I'm of two minds on the idea of Trump being impeached. On one hand, if he did in fact do something felonious, then I want to have faith that our system will seek the appropriate retribution. On the other, that means Pence is in charge, and it becomes far more likely that we'd inherit an  administration both competent and capable of enacting some really heinous shit.

As another thought for consideration, Trump rallied a lot of people to the GOP. First time voters, people who don't normally vote, on the fence people tired of politics as usual, even lots of Democrats who would have backed another Obama. While Clinton's backers are pretty solid in their support for her views and qualifications, a good chunk of Trump's base were people who thought he would tear the system down despite his unorthodox demeanor, and only really backed him out of opposition to Clinton.

Throwing Trump out will likely alienate many of the people who swamped the primaries and general election to carry him to power in the first place, securing the Democrats the 2020 race, perhaps even the 2018 races depending on how things went. This is probably precisely why the GOP is so scared to impeach him; it would break the Party base and likely cause chaos at the polls for several years. It would be the Bernie Bro effect on steroids.

This is particularly relevant given races like the Oklahoma race in the middle of nowhere that I shared earlier: it doesn't take a tide to flip seats, only a low sea wall. Alienated Republican voters mean Democratic pickups intensify dramatically. So while President Pence would be awful for whatever time he'd have in office, he would likely not have much of that time to relish, between a flipped chamber of Congress and a lost reelection.

1 hour ago, Candescence said:

Behind Comey’s firing: An enraged Trump, fuming about Russia

tl;dr: Trump was pissed that the Russia investigation was overshadowing his 'achievements' and that Comey wasn't his lapdog, and he wanted the investigation shut down. He also thought both sides of politics would support him because nobody likes Comey - turns out both sides also were aware of the political optics of such a move, leaving Trump baffled that still nobody was supporting him.

It really is a magnificent backfire.

Comey gave him the job and may end up costing him it too.

[Tornado]

26 minutes ago, KHCast said:

So like, is that an argument to my point or...?

It's an argument against the entire narrative being pushed that Comey was fired because of the Russia investigation. Whether he was or not (not that it really changes how the investigation will continue, because even if Trump did fire him for it announced federal investigations don't close themselves at the behest of the President), the outrage at it rings more than a little hollow.

[KHCast]

Is there any evidence to suggest the Russian investigation had no bearing at all on it? On top of that, all this does is put trump in a negative light whether he did or didn't do it for petty reasons. It's another thing to add to the ever growing list of things to make you say "trump is shit". I really doubt it was out of competence and reasonsbility that this happened the way it did given who were talking about, especially with articles suggesting it WAS out of petty ego reasons mostly 

[Tani Coyote]

Intent being as important as action in justice, I can see the reason for outrage.

Had he canned Comey seconds after being inaugurated for the same reason that was publicly given for this, I doubt there would be much outrage at all. In fact, it would probably be the most noble thing Trump has ever done in his life.

This, on the other hand, just feels dirty. It's no secret people wanted Comey gone, but the way he was dismissed during a sensitive investigation is naturally worrisome. Conservatives are having a laugh at the liberal outrage, but they're ignoring that it is legitimately different in this case. There's a wealth of difference between potentially flipping an election with poorly-timed announcements and being canned for actually doing one's job and investigating anyone, even a sitting President.

Presidents cannot directly shut down investigations, but they do hold firing power over whoever sits in the FBI Director's chair, and I and others are not confident a Trump appointee, likely tailored to be a brown noser, will give due diligence to the investigation. They could shift resources away from it even if they don't close it outright. As discussed here, most investigations require supervisory approval. There's always the chance for intimidation going down the chain of command, and the lack of will in Congress to discuss impeachment means a puppet Director could be emboldened to try and get the investigation shut down.

Yes, it looks bad on Trump and his Director, but I don't see the GOP growing a pair to throw him out any time soon, especially when tons of Trump's backers have told themselves there's nothing to be found and by shutting the investigation down he's Making America Great Again.

[Tornado]

1 hour ago, KHCast said:

Is there any evidence to suggest the Russian investigation had no bearing at all on it?

No. But that's not what I said in the first place. For the past half page you people have been talking about impeachment proceedings for Trump firing someone who as little as two days ago I read an article saying that Hilary was still calling for the head of. For someone who people thought Obama was going to shitcan before Trump even took office. A little perspective seemed necessary.

 

The fact of the matter is that regardless of if Trump fired him because he was pissed at him for the investigation, and regardless of if he fired him to put a stop to the investigation (which it won't, but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump believed otherwise); at the end of the day Trump fired an idiot who neither political party believes is remotely competent at his job, and who neither party would have been satisfied with the results of the Russian investigation.

 

[KHCast]

Ogi pretty much explained it best that while he can't stop the investigation, he can sure as hell hire someone that will work it in his favor or write it off and shift focus.

[CleverSonicUsername]

27 minutes ago, Tornado said:

For the past half page you people have been talking about impeachment proceedings for Trump firing someone

 

Not sure where you're getting that, looking over some posts I don't see anybody implying he would be impeached for terminating someone, that'd just be silly. I only brought it up as a hypothetical because people are getting whipped up again about Russia, and investigations, and what the president knew, and then saying it's all very Nixonian, and personally I'm just conflicted about the very concept of an impeached Trump.

 

But again, what I posed was just a hypothetical. My confidence in an actual impeachment happening is slim, especially with a GOP majority.

 

[Tornado]

My mistake then. I misread what the discussion was predicated on.

[CleverSonicUsername]

42 minutes ago, Tornado said:

My mistake then. I misread what the discussion was predicated on.

It's all good. I can see how it may have been misread and I could have been better about communicating where I was coming from, too.

[Nepenthe]

Trump firing Comey looks hilariously bad because he predicated the move on his universal dislike, completely forgetting the fact that he was the head of the FBI while they were investigating his and his administration's ass for Russian collusion. The optics are terrible, and would've been called out furiously by Republicans had Obama fired him during the e-mail debacle. Trump's gotta be pissed that the country isn't sucking his dick over this. But still; fuck Comey.

In other news, France just decided to not elect the far-right nutcase not too long ago in their elections because they like not living in fear, and they partly did it by heading off Russian hackers with a bunch of honeypots and false e-mails. Fool me once and all of that.

[Tani Coyote]

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/332839-gop-resists-calls-for-special-prosecutor-after-comey-firing

Schumer's mobilized Democrats to shut down hearings and engage in quite a lot of obstruction. McConnell and co. are screeching about it of course, because obstruction's only wrong when it's Democrats who do it.

Quote

Sen. Lisa Murkowksi (R-Alaska), however, told reporters that a special prosecutor “needs to be considered.”

Murkowski, a centrist whose vote will be critical in the healthcare debate, said the timing of Comey’s departure looks suspicious.

Murkowski remains probably my favorite Republican.

Either way, many leading Republicans are saying Trump needs to appoint someone with strong credentials who isn't obviously a Trumpite stooge. Otherwise, he risks digging his hole deeper.

2 hours ago, Nepenthe said:

Trump firing Comey looks hilariously bad because he predicated the move on his universal dislike, completely forgetting the fact that he was the head of the FBI while they were investigating his and his administration's ass for Russian collusion. The optics are terrible, and would've been called out furiously by Republicans had Obama fired him during the e-mail debacle. Trump's gotta be pissed that the country isn't sucking his dick over this. But still; fuck Comey.

Basically yeah, no one likes Comey, but the way he was terminated during a sensitive investigation raises a lot of eyebrows. Trump easily could have done it right after he was inaugurated, or waited until the probe was over. The timing is poor and that's what the real issue is.

If we want to get into the principles at play here, here's a wham! tweet to emphasize this isn't about it being Comey being fired, but the way and timing in which he was fired.

 

[Nepenthe]

Flynn just got subpoenaed by the Senate Intelligence Committee.
 

Does it begin?

[Tara]

Forgive me if I'm out of the loop, but I thought Flynn's ties to Russia were already known and that he'd turned his back on Trump or something like that?

[Tani Coyote]

It's known, but he's being asked to give formal testimony before a Senate body that has thus far been fairly bipartisan. From Democrats and Republicans on the committee, it sounds like it's mostly above McConnell and Schumer's contest of who can scream louder.

Even if McConnell and his inner circle don't want to impeach Trump, he can't stop the Senate committee from digging deeper into the case, finding evidence to do so, and when McConnell inevitably makes a partisan move to not back any further action, everything blowing up in his face.

Also, Comey was invited to testify as well.

Trump thought he could just fire everyone to make his problems go away, but if Comey goes before the committee too... basically, everything is going to go south for him.

[Tani Coyote]

Short of a miraculous recovery or an abysmal Democratic campaign, Trump's chances of re-election are pretty much gone outside turnout shenanigans.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/05/10/poll-trumps-approval-rating-sinks-near-new-record-low-base-support-shrinks/22080335/

His approval has sunk from 40 to 36 percent, but what's really telling is that the loss of approval is concentrated in his base. Independent approval sank from 38 to 29 percent, and whites with no college degree sank from 57 to 47 percent. You read that right: the working class whites who are often credited as being the deciding demographic no longer have majority approval of him.

From the regular swing voters to the Blue Wall Democrats who defected to back Trump to the white supremacists who saw him as their ultimate enabler, it looks like he can't count on any of them like he could in 2016. If we had a redo, right now, Trump would be crushed.

The Democrats have the greatest seat pickup opportunity of all in 2020, and the Party base must be sure that the opportunity isn't squandered on a Party darling who fails to connect with the bases that made Obama so successful in his 2008 bid.

[Nepenthe]

That approval rating is still too damn high.

[Tani Coyote]

We can assume 30% is the floor for dogmatic conservative support, based on Bush. Then again, it's always possible traditional conservative Bush supporters won't be so inclined to always back Trump. He might just break a record and sink far, far lower.

The best part is Trump convinced himself that opinion polls are meaningless because of his taking of the GOP nomination and the Presidency. Third time's the charm, however, so it'll be good to see his smug grin wiped off his face when he finally does lose big time. The loss of outsider credentials and the gradual shrinkage of swing support for him means he can't continue to tell himself that he's predestined to win everything he tries.

This is the man who already has a 2020 campaign registration and a trademark on his campaign's slogan so he can profit from it once again. The man who is so insecure he can't fathom the idea he lost the popular vote, even though a massive vote rigging effort not making a point to give Clinton the Presidency makes no sense. He thinks so long as he sits there pretty, he's guaranteed a second term. Boy, do I hope the Democrats put someone forward who can clean his clock.

I don't think even a national crisis could save his position at the rate he's going. People quickly fell in line behind Bush after 9/11, but I think Bush exhausted blind trust in government to a point that Trump couldn't hope to coast to re-election on the basis of national security alone

[CrownSlayers Shadow]

If anything, a national crisis might make things worse for him given how poorly he might manage it based on his track record of dealing with such serious matters.

[Tani Coyote]

9 minutes ago, Conquering Storm's Servant said:

If anything, a national crisis might make things worse for him given how poorly he might manage it based on his track record of dealing with such serious matters.

To be quite honest, the thought of Trump handling something like 9/11 over a dinner at Mar-a-Lago is terrifying.

I question the logic of rural and suburban whites deciding they should replace a liberal elite with a man who gives probably even less of a shit about them. Nothing exposes classism in our society quite like Trump monetizing the electoral process and handling political matters at a club for the wealthy.

I guess in a pessimistic world, it's nice to dream... sounds like a lot of them are snapping out of it, though. For all his bile, Trump on the campaign trail basically came out in favor of universal healthcare, higher taxes on the rich, term limits on Congress, etc. that could unsurprisingly draw people into his camp if one wanted to really change the system. He benefitted from the strong on national security image that practically every GOP candidate gets to monopolize, then proceeded to politicize the intelligence community and get engaged in foreign affairs that Obama declined to and that Hillary was slammed for.

I guess it was assumed that with his vast wealth, he'd be free from corrupting lobbyists and could actually do some good, but we just traded one group of conflicting interests for another. The way he blatantly refused to dissolve his empire or disclose all his dealings was just the first of several signs he was just another swamp dweller. But it shouldn't be surprising. His behavioral record is fairly clear that he's a horrible person and would refuse to distance himself from his wealth even if it would give him an opportunity to be a great President.

Honestly, the case for poverty being a virtue has never been stronger.

[Nepenthe]

Everyone owes it to themselves to listen to one of Tom MacArthur's constituents lay the fuck into him about the AHCA, and the fundamental problems of for-profit insurance. It's amazing.